Click here for the Oct 5 Weekly Update

Week 40 in brief: 

• CI STRATEGIC WEALTH - No changes; maintain defensive positioning. 
• CI MACRO - Gave back 0.5% last week; added new position in Japanese yen. 
• CI EQUITY - Gained +2.3% last week, driven by gains in LTHM. 
• CI LAUNCH - Titan progressing well. Looking for new opportunities. 

Click here for the Oct 12 Weekly Update

10/12

Week 41 in brief: 

• CI STRATEGIC WEALTH: No changes; maintain defensive positioning. 
• CI MACRO: Added to Coffee long and Norwegian krone short.
• CI EQUITY: Up 4% last week; took some profits and adjusted portfolio.
• CI LAUNCH: Titan progressing well. Looking for new opportunities.

Click here for the Oct 19 Weekly Update

10/19

Week 42 in brief: 

• CI STRATEGIC WEALTH: No changes; maintain defensive positioning; watching bonds closely. 
• CI MACRO: No changes last week. Biggest position remains India NIFTY 50 short. 
• CI EQUITY: Trimmed positions on strength; preparing to add some new ideas. 
• CI LAUNCH: Key data point on Titan expected this week.  

Click here for the Oct 26 Weekly Update

10/26

Week 43 in brief: 

• CI STRATEGIC WEALTH: No changes; still defensive toward stocks; watching bonds closely. 
• CI MACRO: Added to long euro position, increased NASDAQ short. 
• CI EQUITY: Added two new positions: IWG LN and GM.  
• CI LAUNCH: CNOOC results support our bullish thesis on Titan. 

Click here for the Sep 30 Chart

"Workin' man blues" (pt 2) 

The proportion of American men either working or looking for a job has plummeted for a generation. The participation rate for women is also lower than it was 20 years ago. This drop reflects deep social and economic problems. Under COVID, they will almost certainly get worse.

Click here for the Oct 14 Chart

"Dallas ain't a woman to help you get your feet on the ground” 

Texas is over-supplied with office space. We expect more US companies to relocate there in the coming years.   

Click here for the Oct 21 Chart

"Cruisin' with no particular place to go" 

Chinese oil consumption might be peaking.

Click here for the Oct 28 Chart

"Texas swing"

Texas oil production has emerged as the global swing supplier over the past decade. It's not clear whether this will last. ​

Click here for 10/2 Situation Report

• Internal resistance to the EU's Next Generation economic plan is emerging. Perch's long-term assessment of the EU (that it will emerge as a stronger and more coherent body) still stands, but internal conflict and big changes seem imminent.
• CI clients with any exposure to Europe should pay close attention to these developments.
• The worsening Azerbaijan vs. Armenia conflict increases the risk of a wider conflagration, with Russia and Turkey backing the opposing sides.
• Clients' general alert level should be elevated.
• The US-China trade war is escalating with China's announcement that it would open an antitrust probe into Google.
• This has major implications for any CI clients with business interests in China.
• Plus: Vietnam currency and trade sanctions, UK Brexit developments, Libya and crude oil, and  everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.

Click here for 10/6 Situation Report

• Macron is turning his attention to the problem of Muslim integration.
• CI clients should pay close attention to this issue, as it will have significant ramifications for the future development of France and the overall EU.
• Multiple new data points on the theme of resource nationalism and shifting supply chains.
• Clients whose businesses are buyers of commodity inputs should be aware of this growing issue.
• There are increasing signs the UK will strike a deal to avoid a hard Brexit, as Perch thought likely.
• This has clear implications for clients doing business in the UK.
• Plus: Russia and the "Kurdish issue," protests in Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia's economic reforms, and everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients

Click here for 10/9 Situation Report

Highlights from today’s Global Sitrep:

• The KMT in Taiwan made a significant anti-China policy shift and tensions are rising.
• CI clients with exposure to China or Taiwan should pay close attention.
• Indonesia is growing in importance both geopolitically and economically, as shown by the recent business reform package.
• Clients active in Asia should have Indonesia on their radar screens.
• Plus: Bolsonaro and Lava Jato, Turkey’s FX problems, Ethiopia’s internal conflict, and everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.

Click here for 10/13 Situation Report

• Tensions are rising again in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Perch Perspectives is skeptical of any sustained recovery in Libyan oil production. CI clients with exposure to Mediterranean logistics and energy should pay attention. 

• China appears to be taking its use of preferential market access to new levels with a ban on Australian coal. As we have noted, CI clients with exposure to China should be making contingency plans.  
 

• Mexico's Sonora state is becoming increasingly unstable. This follows Perch's earlier analysis of rising risk levels in Mexico more generally. CI clients sourcing product from Mexico should consider how to increase the resiliency of their supply chains. 
 

• The situation in Kyrgyzstan remains uncertain and fluid. CI clients with exposure to Central Asia should make a point to follow Perch's ongoing analysis of these events. 

• Plus: Mass protests in Nigeria, La Niña and South American food inflation, India's maneuvering, and a full roundup of everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.​

Click here for 10/16 Situation Report

• The probability of a UK dissolution within 5 years is rising. Perch has been assigning a higher-than-consensus probability to Scottish independence. Recent data points strengthen their view. This has enormous implications for any CI clients operating in London or the UK. They should be certain to read Perch's focus piece in today's report. 
 
• This week's EU deals on technology and industrial strategy suggest rising cohesion and the emergence of an EU identity / sovereignty. CI has been bullish on the euro, on peripheral European assets, and on the longer-term investment opportunities for CI clients in Europe. This appears to support our thesis. 
 
• Risks are increasing in the Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus. Perch sees rising tensions as the US weighs in against Turkey, and also sees Russia and Turkey potentially on the path to war over the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Although the news headlines have moved on, the risks of a greater conflagration in the region are rising. CI clients with exposure here should be prepared. 
 
• Plus: Rising risk in Thailand, the arming of Taiwan, Korea moving away from the US, unusual developments in Israel, and a full roundup of everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.

Click here for 10/20 Situation Report

• The security situation in Mexico is deteriorating, and this could accelerate with the recent DEA arrest. Perch has been flagging the increased security risks in Mexico since July. CI clients with exposure to Mexico, or who source manufactured goods from Mexico, need to be putting a backup plan into place.
 
• China has threatened to detain US citizens. Perch thinks the threat is serious, and recommends that CI clients avoid non-essential travel to China.
 
• The risk of instability in Nigeria is rising. Perch thinks a violent crackdown by the military might be imminent. CI clients in the energy space should monitor these developments. 
 
• Plus: Japan asserting itself, the breakdown of US/Korea relations, Cypress election raises Easter Mediterranean risks, and a full roundup of everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.

Click here for 10/23 Situation Report

• The protests in Nigeria might be building to a critical decision point. Perch does a deep dive on the protests, the choices facing Buhari, and why Nigeria matters. We recommend that CI clients with interests in energy and/or West Africa read today's piece. 
 
• Turkey is making unexpectedly aggressive moves on multiple fronts. Their rationale is unclear. European clients, or clients with interests in the Mediterranean, need to follow this closely.
 
• Food prices continue to rise globally, contributing to instability in Pakistan, Thailand, Nigeria and elsewhere. CI clients need to be thinking about their broader exposure to food prices in coming years, and should prepare for higher political volatility in countries where food makes up the majority of the consumer basket. 
 
• Plus: the US vs. Nord Stream 2, Thailand protests coming to a head, insurgencies in Uganda and Mozambique, and a full roundup of everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.

Click here for 10/27 Situation Report

• The conflict between Turkey and the EU is worsening. This has major implications for EU integration and security in the Mediterranean. Clients with exposure to Europe should read Perch's deep dive analysis. 
 
• A violent crackdown in Nigeria looks imminent. The risk of instability in Nigeria may be rising. Clients with exposure to energy should be aware of these events.
 
• US-Mexican relations are straining further over Mexico's oil policy. Perch has been flagging elevated security and political risks in Mexico since the summer. We reiterate that clients with exposure to Mexico, or who import manufactured products from Mexico, need to be putting in place long-term contingency plans. 
 
• Plus: Chile's constitutional overhaul, instability in Ethiopia, China's latest signals on Taiwan, and a full roundup of everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.

Click here for 10/30 Situation Report

• The risk of instability in Saudi Arabia is rising. MbS is pushing through a controversial labor reform, and a Biden win could be a major negative for Saudi. Clients in the energy space, or with exposure to the Middle East, need to read Perch's focus piece today.
 
• Argentina's political class is showing signs that another big devaluation may be imminent. CI clients with exposure should take heed.
 
• Plus: Muslim extremist violence in France, Brazil-EU relations, reforms in Chile, South Korea moving into China's orbit, and a full roundup of everything that matters geopolitically for CI clients.